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ANALYSIS: Voting Patterns in 2019, 2023 Presidential Elections

On February 25, Nigerians elected a new president. Two days later, Mahmood Yakubu, Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), declared Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) winner of the presidential poll.

Tinubu polled 8,794,726 votes to defeat his closest rivals, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), who polled 6,984,520 and 6,101,533 respectively.

Atiku and Obi have described the election as a sham and have already taken steps to challenge the entire process in court, but despite its many flaws and cases of voter suppression and electoral violence, the same election birthed a third formidable force, the LP.

Though formed in 2002, the LP had never enjoyed the support it got during the 2023 presidential election. With Obi has its aspirant, the party had a significant say in the outcome of the polls, making it a force to be reckoned with in future polls.


Without ever recording a state win in a presidential election before, the party won in 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Below is a table comparing voting patterns in the 2023 and 2019 presidential elections.

The above table shows that in 2019, the PDP won in Abia, Anambra, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Imo, Plateau and the FCT. In the 2023 election however, the Labour Party won in all the states.

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During the 2019 election, the APC won in Lagos and Nasarawa states. The story was not the same in 2023, as the LP won in both.

Also, the APC won the presidential election conducted in Kano State in 2019, but the voting pattern changed in 2023, as the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) won in the state.

In 2019, the APC won in Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Osun, Sokoto and Yobe states. The voting pattern changed in 2023, as the PDP won in all the states mentioned.

Benue, Rivers, Ondo and Oyo State voted in favour of the PDP in 2019. In 2023 however, the APC won in all three states.

The voting pattern did not change in Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Taraba State, as the PDP won in 2023, just like it did in 2019.

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The voting pattern did not also change for the APC in Borno, Ekiti, Jigawa, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Ogun and Zamfara States as the party won in 2023 just like it did in 2019.

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Segun Akinlabi

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