As Ogun State prepares for the 2027 governorship election, the longstanding debate over zoning has resurfaced, raising questions about whether the state will finally honour the principle of rotational leadership.
Historically, Ogun Central and Ogun East have dominated the governorship seat since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, leaving Ogun West predominantly inhabited by the Yewa people politically marginalised.
Despite numerous appeals for fairness, Ogun West has struggled to produce a governor due to internal divisions, lack of financial backing, and political maneuvering by dominant forces in the other two senatorial districts. These factors have consistently weakened their chances, allowing Ogun Central and Ogun East to continue their political dominance.
Ahead of the 2027 election, politicians from Ogun Central are already strategizing to succeed Governor Dapo Abiodun, who hails from Ogun East, once again sidelining Ogun West’s long standing demand for equity. Investigations reveal that Ogun West’s inability to present a united front has contributed to its exclusion. In the 2011 election, for instance, the split between General Tunji Olurin (PDP) and Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (PPN) played into the hands of Ogun Central, leading to the emergence of Ibikunle Amosun as governor.
With both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) gearing up for the next election, political observers wonder if zoning will be respected. PDP’s Ladi Adebutu, who lost in 2023, remains in control of the party’s structure and is likely to re contest. Meanwhile, some powerful figures in Ogun Central are pushing their own candidates under the APC platform.
A key question is whether the APC will prioritise zoning and allow Ogun West to produce its candidate, especially given the likelihood of Adebutu securing the PDP ticket. The role of Governor Abiodun in determining his successor is also critical. Will he support Senator Olamilekan Solomon Adeola, Ogun West’s most prominent contender and the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation?
Complicating matters is the political power struggle within APC. Speculations suggest that Governor Abiodun may not back Senator Adeola’s ambition, potentially favouring another candidate. Their recent disagreements over the selection of candidates for the last local government election highlight the existing rift. While both leaders have dismissed claims of tension, party insiders suggest that the battle for control of the APC structure in Ogun State is far from over.
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Furthermore, Ogun West’s political fate could be influenced by heavyweights such as former Governors Amosun and Gbenga Daniel. If they decide to throw their weight behind a candidate from another zone, Ogun West’s chances may be further diminished. Political analysts believe the zone’s best hope lies in unity. If aspirants from Ogun West such as Senator Adeola, Prince Isiaka, former Senator Tolu Odebiyi, and Abiodun Akinlade can set aside personal ambitions and present a consensus candidate, they may finally break the jinx. According to reports from The Guardian, meanwhile, opposition to Ogun West’s ambition is already mounting. The Youth Involvement in Good Governance Movement (YIGGOM) has argued that Ogun Central has enough qualified candidates to take over from Abiodun. The group’s president, Olayiwola Ahmed, insists that Ogun needs a technocrat, pointing to Egba born personalities such as Dr. Gbenga Adeoye, former Ambassador to the UK Sharafa Tunji Ishola, and Bukola Olopade as strong contenders.
At a recent event, Ishola reinforced this sentiment, stating that Egba leaders are united in their resolve to secure the governorship in 2027. He also dismissed claims that Ogun Central has deliberately blocked Ogun West’s ambitions in the past.
Despite these challenges, Ogun West’s political stakeholders remain hopeful that 2027 presents another golden opportunity for the zone to produce its first governor since the state’s creation in 1976. However, achieving this goal will require unprecedented unity, strategic alliances, and the ability to navigate the internal politics of both major parties.
For now, the APC leadership insists that discussions about the 2027 governorship ticket are premature. According to the party’s Publicity Secretary, Tunde Oladunjoye, “The present preoccupation of the party is to support our performing governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, in executing his legacy projects. While members have the right to project their preferred aspirants, misinformation that may heat up the polity should be avoided.”
