SPECIAL REPORT: 2023 Is World’s Hottest Year, but 2024 May Be Hotter
A study by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has confirmed 2023 as the warmest year in history, based on data records that date back to 1850.
The report established that 2023 was warmer than the global average temperature between 1991 and 2020 by 0.60°C.
Before 2023, the world recorded its highest annual temperature in 2016 at 14.81°C. The new study, however, established that the global average temperature in 2023 beat the 2016 record by 0.17°C. Most importantly, the study projected that the world might get even warmer in 2024 by 0.2°C.
The study identified the major climate drivers that increased global temperatures in 2023, and they were the rapidly increasing surface temperatures of the ocean and the high and rising concentration of global greenhouse gases.
“A critical driver of the unusual air temperatures experienced throughout 2023 was the unprecedented high surface temperatures in the ocean. The global average SSTs(2) for the period between April and December were the highest for the time of year in the ERA5 dataset,” the report reads in part.
“The main long-term factor for high ocean temperatures is the continuing increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases, but an additional contributing factor in 2023 was the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
“Greenhouse gas concentrations in 2023 reached the highest levels ever recorded in the atmosphere according to C3S and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2023 were 2.4 ppm higher than in 2022 and methane concentrations increased by 11 ppb.”
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CONSEQUENCES ON DISPLAY
With the EU report as a basis, climate scientists and journalists linked the unprecedented global temperature with major climate events in 2022 and 2023.
Climate journalists Raymond Zhong and Keith Collins, for instance, suggested that events like the Iran heat shutdown, the Canadian wildfire and the heatwaves in Texas, Spain, and Southeast America were all connected to the rising global temperature.
Africa also had its fair share of climate crises in 2023. In October 2023, a report by CarbonBrief estimated that 34 million Africans had been affected by extreme weather events.
The study also stated that 15,000 people had died as a result of weather extremes, especially flooding, in the same year. For context, scientists have established that rising global temperatures directly contribute to the increased severity of flooding.
As of October 2023, more than 3000 people had died in extreme flash floods in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. In Nigeria, the United Nations reported flooding as the most common recurring and common disaster of 2023. More than 1.4 million Nigerians were affected by flooding in Nigeria between 2022 and 2023.
There are indicators that the global temperature will maintain an upward trend. The World Meteorological Association, for instance, projected that 2023–2027 would be the hottest five-year period ever. Experts have disclosed that nations have not been doing enough to prevent the global temperature from reaching the critical point of 1.5°C.
